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JT
2026 · Week 9

JT POLL

JT Rating estimates team strength on a neutral field. Offense and defense ratings show how each unit compares historically with FBS teams at the same point in the season.

National board

Top 25

Unit ratings are percentile scores. Higher is better, and every bar includes its numeric value.

Rank
1
Notre Dame logo
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
Offense
80
Percentile
Defense
95
Percentile
Special Teams
58
2026 percentile
JT Rating
28.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #5
JT +4 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
51.1%
Early-down success
51.4%
Third-down success
43.2%
Yards/play
6.72
Explosive pass rate
14.0%
Explosive rush rate
9.2%
Sack allowed rate
1.0%

Defense

Success allowed
35.5%
Early-down success allowed
33.1%
Third-down success allowed
40.8%
Yards/play allowed
Rank
2
Georgia logo
Georgia
SEC
Offense
94
Percentile
Defense
95
Percentile
Rank
3
Ohio State logo
Ohio State
Big Ten
Offense
77
Percentile
Defense
95
Percentile
Rank
4
Alabama logo
Alabama
SEC
Offense
68
Percentile
Defense
80
Percentile
Rank
5
Texas logo
Texas
SEC
Offense
25
Percentile
Defense
97
Percentile
Rank
6
Miami logo
Miami
ACC
Offense
96
Percentile
Defense
93
Percentile
Rank
7
LSU logo
LSU
SEC
Offense
83
Percentile
Defense
98
Percentile
Rank
8
Indiana logo
Indiana
Big Ten
Offense
76
Percentile
Defense
98
Percentile
Rank
9
Ole Miss logo
Ole Miss
SEC
Offense
75
Percentile
Defense
51
Percentile
Rank
10
USC logo
USC
Big Ten
Offense
82
Percentile
Defense
73
Percentile
Rank
11
Florida logo
Florida
SEC
Offense
69
Percentile
Defense
67
Percentile
Rank
12
Missouri logo
Missouri
SEC
Offense
49
Percentile
Defense
82
Percentile
Rank
13
Oregon logo
Oregon
Big Ten
Offense
37
Percentile
Defense
94
Percentile
Rank
14
BYU logo
BYU
Big 12
Offense
87
Percentile
Defense
80
Percentile
Rank
15
Texas Tech logo
Texas Tech
Big 12
Offense
67
Percentile
Defense
66
Percentile
Rank
16
Oklahoma logo
Oklahoma
SEC
Offense
15
Percentile
Defense
97
Percentile
Rank
17
Tennessee logo
Tennessee
SEC
Offense
42
Percentile
Defense
90
Percentile
Rank
18
Utah logo
Utah
Big 12
Offense
89
Percentile
Defense
85
Percentile
Rank
19
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M
SEC
Offense
28
Percentile
Defense
60
Percentile
Rank
20
Michigan logo
Michigan
Big Ten
Offense
9
Percentile
Defense
96
Percentile
Rank
21
Louisville logo
Louisville
ACC
Offense
90
Percentile
Defense
73
Percentile
Rank
22
SMU logo
SMU
ACC
Offense
84
Percentile
Defense
90
Percentile
Rank
23
South Carolina logo
South Carolina
SEC
Offense
64
Percentile
Defense
74
Percentile
Rank
24
Arizona logo
Arizona
Big 12
Offense
87
Percentile
Defense
91
Percentile
Rank
25
Oklahoma State logo
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Offense
93
Percentile
Defense
62
Percentile
Current published slate

Game Projections

JT compares its projected line with the current market and shows where the model sees the game differently.

Week 9Tue, 6:00 PM CDT
Delaware logo
#114Delaware
Conference USA
OFF 33 · DEF 53
50%
JT win chance
Western Kentucky logo
#122Western Kentucky
4.59
Explosive pass allowed
6.8%
Explosive rush allowed
6.2%
Sack generated
7.6%

Style

Pass rate
45.8%
Early-down pass rate
44.8%
Plays/drive
6.35

Model Details

JT Rating
28.52
Market Power
28.85
Model Adjustment
-0.34

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
64
2026 percentile
JT Rating
28.1
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #3
JT +1 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
51.9%
Early-down success
50.7%
Third-down success
56.5%
Yards/play
7.66
Explosive pass rate
15.1%
Explosive rush rate
16.7%
Sack allowed rate
4.1%

Defense

Success allowed
35.8%
Early-down success allowed
34.3%
Third-down success allowed
38.6%
Yards/play allowed
4.64
Explosive pass allowed
7.0%
Explosive rush allowed
9.2%
Sack generated
9.1%

Style

Pass rate
47.8%
Early-down pass rate
43.5%
Plays/drive
5.32

Model Details

JT Rating
28.15
Market Power
28.14
Model Adjustment
0.00

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
48
2026 percentile
JT Rating
25.6
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #2
JT -1 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
49.6%
Early-down success
49.3%
Third-down success
44.5%
Yards/play
7.19
Explosive pass rate
17.6%
Explosive rush rate
11.3%
Sack allowed rate
6.8%

Defense

Success allowed
33.7%
Early-down success allowed
32.7%
Third-down success allowed
38.0%
Yards/play allowed
4.18
Explosive pass allowed
4.9%
Explosive rush allowed
8.3%
Sack generated
4.0%

Style

Pass rate
47.4%
Early-down pass rate
44.4%
Plays/drive
6.12

Model Details

JT Rating
25.63
Market Power
26.29
Model Adjustment
-0.66

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
55
2026 percentile
JT Rating
24.7
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #10
JT +6 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
47.0%
Early-down success
47.0%
Third-down success
44.0%
Yards/play
6.66
Explosive pass rate
16.5%
Explosive rush rate
15.6%
Sack allowed rate
9.2%

Defense

Success allowed
37.6%
Early-down success allowed
37.7%
Third-down success allowed
34.9%
Yards/play allowed
5.70
Explosive pass allowed
14.2%
Explosive rush allowed
8.7%
Sack generated
8.0%

Style

Pass rate
50.6%
Early-down pass rate
46.1%
Plays/drive
5.61

Model Details

JT Rating
24.70
Market Power
24.56
Model Adjustment
+0.14

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
42
2026 percentile
JT Rating
24.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #11
JT +6 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
42.8%
Early-down success
43.8%
Third-down success
37.2%
Yards/play
5.70
Explosive pass rate
9.0%
Explosive rush rate
14.6%
Sack allowed rate
9.3%

Defense

Success allowed
34.7%
Early-down success allowed
35.0%
Third-down success allowed
31.9%
Yards/play allowed
4.29
Explosive pass allowed
5.1%
Explosive rush allowed
9.9%
Sack generated
7.9%

Style

Pass rate
48.5%
Early-down pass rate
45.1%
Plays/drive
5.70

Model Details

JT Rating
24.51
Market Power
25.21
Model Adjustment
-0.70

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
46
2026 percentile
JT Rating
22.4
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #1
JT -5 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
52.9%
Early-down success
52.5%
Third-down success
53.2%
Yards/play
7.85
Explosive pass rate
16.7%
Explosive rush rate
17.0%
Sack allowed rate
4.1%

Defense

Success allowed
34.9%
Early-down success allowed
35.6%
Third-down success allowed
34.3%
Yards/play allowed
4.88
Explosive pass allowed
10.1%
Explosive rush allowed
7.7%
Sack generated
8.0%

Style

Pass rate
48.7%
Early-down pass rate
44.8%
Plays/drive
5.85

Model Details

JT Rating
22.44
Market Power
23.52
Model Adjustment
-1.08

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
35
2026 percentile
JT Rating
22.3
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #15
JT +8 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
51.0%
Early-down success
49.2%
Third-down success
54.1%
Yards/play
6.62
Explosive pass rate
11.7%
Explosive rush rate
14.5%
Sack allowed rate
4.1%

Defense

Success allowed
34.7%
Early-down success allowed
35.5%
Third-down success allowed
33.4%
Yards/play allowed
4.41
Explosive pass allowed
8.5%
Explosive rush allowed
11.2%
Sack generated
12.7%

Style

Pass rate
49.8%
Early-down pass rate
47.1%
Plays/drive
6.72

Model Details

JT Rating
22.25
Market Power
22.28
Model Adjustment
0.00

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
48
2026 percentile
JT Rating
21.9
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #4
JT -4 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
45.5%
Early-down success
45.3%
Third-down success
43.9%
Yards/play
7.15
Explosive pass rate
16.9%
Explosive rush rate
15.3%
Sack allowed rate
5.5%

Defense

Success allowed
33.2%
Early-down success allowed
32.0%
Third-down success allowed
34.1%
Yards/play allowed
4.47
Explosive pass allowed
9.8%
Explosive rush allowed
7.1%
Sack generated
11.0%

Style

Pass rate
42.9%
Early-down pass rate
36.7%
Plays/drive
5.44

Model Details

JT Rating
21.85
Market Power
22.68
Model Adjustment
-0.83

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
48
2026 percentile
JT Rating
20.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #12
JT +3 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
50.1%
Early-down success
50.0%
Third-down success
43.5%
Yards/play
6.26
Explosive pass rate
8.7%
Explosive rush rate
15.5%
Sack allowed rate
2.1%

Defense

Success allowed
41.8%
Early-down success allowed
41.0%
Third-down success allowed
44.2%
Yards/play allowed
5.80
Explosive pass allowed
12.8%
Explosive rush allowed
10.6%
Sack generated
5.4%

Style

Pass rate
56.8%
Early-down pass rate
55.3%
Plays/drive
5.83

Model Details

JT Rating
20.45
Market Power
21.73
Model Adjustment
-1.28

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
45
2026 percentile
JT Rating
17.0
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
50.8%
Early-down success
49.9%
Third-down success
50.5%
Yards/play
6.36
Explosive pass rate
12.9%
Explosive rush rate
13.9%
Sack allowed rate
3.4%

Defense

Success allowed
41.7%
Early-down success allowed
41.8%
Third-down success allowed
35.7%
Yards/play allowed
5.71
Explosive pass allowed
10.5%
Explosive rush allowed
10.1%
Sack generated
7.2%

Style

Pass rate
53.7%
Early-down pass rate
51.2%
Plays/drive
7.25

Model Details

JT Rating
16.99
Market Power
16.26
Model Adjustment
+0.72

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
66
2026 percentile
JT Rating
16.9
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #17
JT +6 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
46.8%
Early-down success
45.8%
Third-down success
46.9%
Yards/play
6.47
Explosive pass rate
13.1%
Explosive rush rate
13.9%
Sack allowed rate
4.2%

Defense

Success allowed
42.2%
Early-down success allowed
41.5%
Third-down success allowed
42.4%
Yards/play allowed
5.68
Explosive pass allowed
10.0%
Explosive rush allowed
11.4%
Sack generated
8.8%

Style

Pass rate
45.6%
Early-down pass rate
42.5%
Plays/drive
6.17

Model Details

JT Rating
16.95
Market Power
16.92
Model Adjustment
0.00

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
44
2026 percentile
JT Rating
15.7
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #23
JT +11 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
40.3%
Early-down success
39.6%
Third-down success
43.1%
Yards/play
6.28
Explosive pass rate
14.6%
Explosive rush rate
12.0%
Sack allowed rate
2.6%

Defense

Success allowed
36.8%
Early-down success allowed
36.0%
Third-down success allowed
37.4%
Yards/play allowed
5.12
Explosive pass allowed
9.1%
Explosive rush allowed
12.8%
Sack generated
6.9%

Style

Pass rate
48.1%
Early-down pass rate
39.8%
Plays/drive
5.43

Model Details

JT Rating
15.69
Market Power
15.23
Model Adjustment
+0.46

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
47
2026 percentile
JT Rating
15.6
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
42.2%
Early-down success
43.6%
Third-down success
36.5%
Yards/play
5.81
Explosive pass rate
11.2%
Explosive rush rate
12.2%
Sack allowed rate
4.2%

Defense

Success allowed
34.0%
Early-down success allowed
34.7%
Third-down success allowed
27.8%
Yards/play allowed
5.05
Explosive pass allowed
10.9%
Explosive rush allowed
8.4%
Sack generated
7.5%

Style

Pass rate
55.1%
Early-down pass rate
50.4%
Plays/drive
5.44

Model Details

JT Rating
15.64
Market Power
14.86
Model Adjustment
+0.78

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
73
2026 percentile
JT Rating
15.2
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #8
JT -6 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
50.1%
Early-down success
48.6%
Third-down success
56.5%
Yards/play
6.74
Explosive pass rate
13.7%
Explosive rush rate
13.7%
Sack allowed rate
2.2%

Defense

Success allowed
38.9%
Early-down success allowed
37.6%
Third-down success allowed
40.8%
Yards/play allowed
4.82
Explosive pass allowed
7.0%
Explosive rush allowed
11.5%
Sack generated
5.3%

Style

Pass rate
43.5%
Early-down pass rate
41.7%
Plays/drive
5.74

Model Details

JT Rating
15.21
Market Power
15.24
Model Adjustment
0.00

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
34
2026 percentile
JT Rating
14.8
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #13
JT -2 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
48.3%
Early-down success
49.6%
Third-down success
40.2%
Yards/play
6.21
Explosive pass rate
9.3%
Explosive rush rate
18.6%
Sack allowed rate
5.5%

Defense

Success allowed
39.9%
Early-down success allowed
40.3%
Third-down success allowed
39.4%
Yards/play allowed
5.61
Explosive pass allowed
7.3%
Explosive rush allowed
16.2%
Sack generated
6.8%

Style

Pass rate
46.9%
Early-down pass rate
45.6%
Plays/drive
5.65

Model Details

JT Rating
14.83
Market Power
14.96
Model Adjustment
-0.13

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
65
2026 percentile
JT Rating
14.7
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
39.2%
Early-down success
38.5%
Third-down success
39.5%
Yards/play
5.57
Explosive pass rate
13.2%
Explosive rush rate
7.2%
Sack allowed rate
7.1%

Defense

Success allowed
34.1%
Early-down success allowed
35.7%
Third-down success allowed
24.7%
Yards/play allowed
5.03
Explosive pass allowed
8.5%
Explosive rush allowed
11.9%
Sack generated
12.4%

Style

Pass rate
50.3%
Early-down pass rate
44.9%
Plays/drive
5.49

Model Details

JT Rating
14.73
Market Power
14.89
Model Adjustment
-0.16

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
54
2026 percentile
JT Rating
14.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #16
JT -1 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
45.9%
Early-down success
46.4%
Third-down success
39.6%
Yards/play
5.88
Explosive pass rate
8.3%
Explosive rush rate
16.6%
Sack allowed rate
8.0%

Defense

Success allowed
38.7%
Early-down success allowed
41.0%
Third-down success allowed
32.0%
Yards/play allowed
4.98
Explosive pass allowed
6.1%
Explosive rush allowed
17.8%
Sack generated
13.0%

Style

Pass rate
40.5%
Early-down pass rate
40.0%
Plays/drive
5.85

Model Details

JT Rating
14.51
Market Power
14.29
Model Adjustment
+0.23

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
34
2026 percentile
JT Rating
14.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #6
JT -12 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
50.3%
Early-down success
49.5%
Third-down success
53.4%
Yards/play
6.93
Explosive pass rate
12.7%
Explosive rush rate
18.8%
Sack allowed rate
4.1%

Defense

Success allowed
34.6%
Early-down success allowed
34.6%
Third-down success allowed
34.0%
Yards/play allowed
5.27
Explosive pass allowed
8.9%
Explosive rush allowed
11.4%
Sack generated
4.8%

Style

Pass rate
46.1%
Early-down pass rate
45.0%
Plays/drive
5.97

Model Details

JT Rating
14.51
Market Power
14.70
Model Adjustment
-0.19

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
51
2026 percentile
JT Rating
14.1
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
42.7%
Early-down success
42.0%
Third-down success
43.7%
Yards/play
5.28
Explosive pass rate
7.5%
Explosive rush rate
12.9%
Sack allowed rate
5.6%

Defense

Success allowed
37.6%
Early-down success allowed
38.7%
Third-down success allowed
32.3%
Yards/play allowed
5.85
Explosive pass allowed
14.3%
Explosive rush allowed
12.5%
Sack generated
3.5%

Style

Pass rate
46.9%
Early-down pass rate
46.0%
Plays/drive
6.13

Model Details

JT Rating
14.13
Market Power
14.16
Model Adjustment
0.00

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
53
2026 percentile
JT Rating
13.9
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
40.0%
Early-down success
39.2%
Third-down success
39.3%
Yards/play
5.09
Explosive pass rate
8.0%
Explosive rush rate
8.7%
Sack allowed rate
7.2%

Defense

Success allowed
34.7%
Early-down success allowed
34.4%
Third-down success allowed
33.7%
Yards/play allowed
4.49
Explosive pass allowed
8.5%
Explosive rush allowed
6.4%
Sack generated
7.8%

Style

Pass rate
42.9%
Early-down pass rate
39.2%
Plays/drive
5.46

Model Details

JT Rating
13.89
Market Power
13.58
Model Adjustment
+0.31

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
51
2026 percentile
JT Rating
13.7
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
49.1%
Early-down success
50.3%
Third-down success
45.4%
Yards/play
7.78
Explosive pass rate
17.4%
Explosive rush rate
19.6%
Sack allowed rate
6.4%

Defense

Success allowed
41.2%
Early-down success allowed
42.1%
Third-down success allowed
33.6%
Yards/play allowed
5.64
Explosive pass allowed
10.2%
Explosive rush allowed
9.5%
Sack generated
6.6%

Style

Pass rate
45.1%
Early-down pass rate
42.8%
Plays/drive
5.05

Model Details

JT Rating
13.70
Market Power
13.79
Model Adjustment
-0.08

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
46
2026 percentile
JT Rating
13.4
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #19
JT -3 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
49.4%
Early-down success
49.3%
Third-down success
44.3%
Yards/play
7.11
Explosive pass rate
14.9%
Explosive rush rate
15.6%
Sack allowed rate
3.4%

Defense

Success allowed
37.2%
Early-down success allowed
39.0%
Third-down success allowed
27.9%
Yards/play allowed
5.07
Explosive pass allowed
8.2%
Explosive rush allowed
11.6%
Sack generated
8.5%

Style

Pass rate
50.2%
Early-down pass rate
47.0%
Plays/drive
6.02

Model Details

JT Rating
13.35
Market Power
12.41
Model Adjustment
+0.95

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
72
2026 percentile
JT Rating
12.9
AP Poll · Week 9
AP NR
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
46.7%
Early-down success
45.7%
Third-down success
48.8%
Yards/play
6.39
Explosive pass rate
9.2%
Explosive rush rate
16.6%
Sack allowed rate
5.8%

Defense

Success allowed
41.3%
Early-down success allowed
41.2%
Third-down success allowed
37.4%
Yards/play allowed
5.31
Explosive pass allowed
11.0%
Explosive rush allowed
9.5%
Sack generated
7.7%

Style

Pass rate
50.1%
Early-down pass rate
47.7%
Plays/drive
6.07

Model Details

JT Rating
12.87
Market Power
12.71
Model Adjustment
+0.16

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
51
2026 percentile
JT Rating
12.7
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #22
JT -2 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
50.0%
Early-down success
48.2%
Third-down success
55.5%
Yards/play
7.15
Explosive pass rate
14.6%
Explosive rush rate
17.2%
Sack allowed rate
6.5%

Defense

Success allowed
34.0%
Early-down success allowed
32.7%
Third-down success allowed
37.1%
Yards/play allowed
4.71
Explosive pass allowed
9.9%
Explosive rush allowed
12.2%
Sack generated
7.8%

Style

Pass rate
54.1%
Early-down pass rate
50.6%
Plays/drive
6.04

Model Details

JT Rating
12.72
Market Power
12.44
Model Adjustment
+0.28

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Special Teams
53
2026 percentile
JT Rating
12.5
AP Poll · Week 9
AP #24
JT -1 vs AP
Team Breakdown+

Offense

Success rate
51.7%
Early-down success
53.7%
Third-down success
40.4%
Yards/play
7.61
Explosive pass rate
18.9%
Explosive rush rate
16.3%
Sack allowed rate
3.0%

Defense

Success allowed
41.7%
Early-down success allowed
43.0%
Third-down success allowed
36.0%
Yards/play allowed
5.71
Explosive pass allowed
14.9%
Explosive rush allowed
7.9%
Sack generated
6.7%

Style

Pass rate
50.3%
Early-down pass rate
48.4%
Plays/drive
6.14

Model Details

JT Rating
12.54
Market Power
11.92
Model Adjustment
+0.62

Model Adjustment shows how much the team's current underlying performance profile moves its rating above or below the market-power baseline.

Conference USA
OFF 14 · DEF 56
50%
JT win chance
Market
Western Kentucky -1.5
JT Projection
Western Kentucky -0.1
JT vs Market
1.4 pts toward Delaware
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.7 pts toward Delaware

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Delaware

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Delaware

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Tue, 7:00 PM CDT
Sam Houston logo
#135Sam Houston
Conference USA
OFF 15 · DEF 67
33%
JT win chance
Missouri State logo
#124Missouri State
Conference USA
OFF 27 · DEF 15
67%
JT win chance
Market
Missouri State -5.8
JT Projection
Missouri State -6.6
JT vs Market
0.9 pts toward Missouri State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.2 pts toward Missouri State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Sam Houston

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Sam Houston

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Wed, 6:00 PM CDT
Kennesaw State logo
#118Kennesaw State
Conference USA
OFF 42 · DEF 38
41%
JT win chance
Middle Tennessee logo
#121Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
OFF 41 · DEF 19
59%
JT win chance
Market
Middle Tennessee -2.5
JT Projection
Middle Tennessee -3.3
JT vs Market
0.8 pts toward Middle Tennessee
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.4 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward Kennesaw State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Kennesaw State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Wed, 7:00 PM CDT
Jacksonville State logo
#97Jacksonville State
Conference USA
OFF 65 · DEF 59
61%
JT win chance
New Mexico State logo
#116New Mexico State
Conference USA
OFF 37 · DEF 76
39%
JT win chance
Market
Jacksonville State -3.3
JT Projection
Jacksonville State -4.4
JT vs Market
1.2 pts toward Jacksonville State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.9 pts toward Jacksonville State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Jacksonville State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Jacksonville State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Thu, 6:30 PM CDT
Florida Atlantic logo
#85Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
OFF 49 · DEF 29
19%
JT win chance
North Texas logo
#46North Texas
American Athletic
OFF 94 · DEF 34
81%
JT win chance
Market
North Texas -13.8
JT Projection
North Texas -13.8
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward North Texas
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.2 pts toward North Texas

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward North Texas

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Thu, 6:30 PM CDT
Troy logo
#113Troy
Sun Belt
OFF 14 · DEF 74
9%
JT win chance
James Madison logo
#55James Madison
Sun Belt
OFF 70 · DEF 88
91%
JT win chance
Market
James Madison -21.0
JT Projection
James Madison -21.1
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward James Madison
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.8 pts toward Troy

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.1 pts toward James Madison

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Troy

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Fri, 6:00 PM CDT
Tulane logo
#93Tulane
American Athletic
OFF 6 · DEF 24
71%
JT win chance
Charlotte logo
#132Charlotte
American Athletic
OFF 13 · DEF 11
29%
JT win chance
Market
Tulane -10.3
JT Projection
Tulane -8.4
JT vs Market
1.9 pts toward Charlotte
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.2 pts toward Charlotte

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.8 pts toward Charlotte

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Tulane

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Fri, 6:30 PM CDT
Baylor logo
#44Baylor
Big 12
OFF 19 · DEF 92
43%
JT win chance
UCF logo
#47UCF
Big 12
OFF 54 · DEF 72
57%
JT win chance
Market
UCF -1.5
JT Projection
UCF -2.8
JT vs Market
1.3 pts toward UCF
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.8 pts toward UCF

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.6 pts toward UCF

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Baylor

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Fri, 9:30 PM CDT
Kent State logo
#128Kent State
Mid-American
OFF 5 · DEF 37
74%
JT win chance
Sacramento State logo
#138Sacramento State
Mid-American
OFF 8 · DEF 47
26%
JT win chance
Market
Kent State -10.0
JT Projection
Kent State -9.9
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward Sacramento State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.9 pts toward Kent State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.3 pts toward Sacramento State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Kent State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
Arizona logo
#24Arizona
Big 12
OFF 87 · DEF 91
42%
JT win chance
Texas Tech logo
#15Texas Tech
Big 12
OFF 67 · DEF 66
58%
JT win chance
Market
Texas Tech -3.5
JT Projection
Texas Tech -3.2
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Arizona
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.4 pts toward Arizona

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Texas Tech

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Arizona

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
California logo
#80California
ACC
OFF 14 · DEF 34
32%
JT win chance
NC State logo
#54NC State
ACC
OFF 54 · DEF 37
68%
JT win chance
Market
NC State -7.0
JT Projection
NC State -7.0
JT vs Market
No meaningful change
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.2 pts toward NC State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.0 pts toward California

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward California

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
SMU logo
#22SMU
ACC
OFF 84 · DEF 90
75%
JT win chance
Syracuse logo
#71Syracuse
ACC
OFF 43 · DEF 67
25%
JT win chance
Market
SMU -10.0
JT Projection
SMU -10.5
JT vs Market
0.5 pts toward SMU
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.4 pts toward SMU

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Syracuse

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward SMU

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
Boston College logo
#74Boston College
ACC
OFF 55 · DEF 73
38%
JT win chance
Duke logo
#58Duke
ACC
OFF 61 · DEF 89
62%
JT win chance
Market
Duke -7.0
JT Projection
Duke -4.6
JT vs Market
2.4 pts toward Boston College
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.0 pts toward Boston College

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.2 pts toward Boston College

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Boston College

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
Wisconsin logo
#32Wisconsin
Big Ten
OFF 33 · DEF 88
41%
JT win chance
Iowa logo
#28Iowa
Big Ten
OFF 51 · DEF 96
59%
JT win chance
Market
Iowa -3.5
JT Projection
Iowa -3.3
JT vs Market
0.2 pts toward Wisconsin
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.4 pts toward Wisconsin

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward Iowa

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Wisconsin

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
Illinois logo
#59Illinois
Big Ten
OFF 71 · DEF 29
55%
JT win chance
Maryland logo
#72Maryland
Big Ten
OFF 40 · DEF 65
45%
JT win chance
Market
Illinois -2.5
JT Projection
Illinois -2.0
JT vs Market
0.5 pts toward Maryland
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.1 pts toward Maryland

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward Illinois

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Illinois

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9 · Neutral siteSat, 11:00 AM CDT
Notre Dame logo
#1Notre Dame
FBS Independents
OFF 80 · DEF 95
97%
JT win chance
Navy logo
#79Navy
American Athletic
OFF 73 · DEF 48
3%
JT win chance
Market
Notre Dame -30.5
JT Projection
Notre Dame -29.1
JT vs Market
1.4 pts toward Navy
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.1 pts toward Navy

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.3 pts toward Navy

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
No meaningful change

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
UAB logo
#102UAB
American Athletic
OFF 18 · DEF 70
28%
JT win chance
South Florida logo
#82South Florida
American Athletic
OFF 39 · DEF 65
72%
JT win chance
Market
South Florida -8.3
JT Projection
South Florida -9.0
JT vs Market
0.7 pts toward South Florida
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.5 pts toward South Florida

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward South Florida

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward UAB

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:00 AM CDT
Bowling Green logo
#126Bowling Green
Mid-American
OFF 13 · DEF 44
21%
JT win chance
Western Michigan logo
#92Western Michigan
Mid-American
OFF 33 · DEF 63
79%
JT win chance
Market
Western Michigan -13.5
JT Projection
Western Michigan -12.3
JT vs Market
1.2 pts toward Bowling Green
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.3 pts toward Bowling Green

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Western Michigan

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Bowling Green

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:30 AM CDT
Michigan logo
#20Michigan
Big Ten
OFF 9 · DEF 96
83%
JT win chance
Rutgers logo
#81Rutgers
Big Ten
OFF 37 · DEF 11
17%
JT win chance
Market
Michigan -14.0
JT Projection
Michigan -14.9
JT vs Market
0.9 pts toward Michigan
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.2 pts toward Michigan

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Michigan

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Michigan

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 11:45 AM CDT
Auburn logo
#30Auburn
SEC
OFF 18 · DEF 65
21%
JT win chance
Ole Miss logo
#9Ole Miss
SEC
OFF 75 · DEF 51
79%
JT win chance
Market
Ole Miss -13.3
JT Projection
Ole Miss -12.4
JT vs Market
0.8 pts toward Auburn
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.3 pts toward Auburn

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.7 pts toward Ole Miss

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Auburn

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 12:00 PM CDT
Marshall logo
#106Marshall
Sun Belt
OFF 44 · DEF 26
59%
JT win chance
Old Dominion logo
#117Old Dominion
Sun Belt
OFF 0 · DEF 84
41%
JT win chance
Market
Marshall -2.5
JT Projection
Marshall -3.5
JT vs Market
1.0 pts toward Marshall
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.1 pts toward Old Dominion

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.0 pts toward Marshall

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Marshall

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 1:00 PM CDT
Kansas State logo
#45Kansas State
Big 12
OFF 78 · DEF 83
57%
JT win chance
Colorado logo
#67Colorado
Big 12
OFF 32 · DEF 46
43%
JT win chance
Market
Kansas State -2.3
JT Projection
Kansas State -2.5
JT vs Market
0.2 pts toward Kansas State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.5 pts toward Colorado

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Kansas State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Kansas State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 1:00 PM CDT
Coastal Carolina logo
#107Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
OFF 36 · DEF 30
36%
JT win chance
Georgia State logo
#94Georgia State
Sun Belt
OFF 84 · DEF 67
64%
JT win chance
Market
Georgia State -6.5
JT Projection
Georgia State -5.6
JT vs Market
0.9 pts toward Coastal Carolina
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Georgia State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:00 PM CDT
UConn logo
#96UConn
FBS Independents
OFF 53 · DEF 67
40%
JT win chance
Air Force logo
#90Air Force
Mountain West
OFF 44 · DEF 57
60%
JT win chance
Market
Air Force -2.8
JT Projection
Air Force -3.9
JT vs Market
1.1 pts toward Air Force
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.1 pts toward Air Force

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.2 pts toward Air Force

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward UConn

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:00 PM CDT
Temple logo
#91Temple
American Athletic
OFF 60 · DEF 14
36%
JT win chance
East Carolina logo
#84East Carolina
American Athletic
OFF 9 · DEF 83
64%
JT win chance
Market
East Carolina -6.0
JT Projection
East Carolina -5.3
JT vs Market
0.7 pts toward Temple
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward Temple

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Temple

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Temple

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:00 PM CDT
Louisiana Tech logo
#76Louisiana Tech
Sun Belt
OFF 39 · DEF 81
68%
JT win chance
South Alabama logo
#103South Alabama
Sun Belt
OFF 50 · DEF 8
32%
JT win chance
Market
Louisiana Tech -5.5
JT Projection
Louisiana Tech -7.2
JT vs Market
1.7 pts toward Louisiana Tech
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.4 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Louisiana Tech

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:15 PM CDT
Stanford logo
#87Stanford
ACC
OFF 14 · DEF 12
9%
JT win chance
Louisville logo
#21Louisville
ACC
OFF 90 · DEF 73
91%
JT win chance
Market
Louisville -22.5
JT Projection
Louisville -21.6
JT vs Market
0.9 pts toward Stanford
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.1 pts toward Stanford

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.3 pts toward Louisville

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Stanford

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9 · Neutral siteSat, 2:30 PM CDT
Florida logo
#11Florida
SEC
OFF 69 · DEF 67
22%
JT win chance
Georgia logo
#2Georgia
SEC
OFF 94 · DEF 95
78%
JT win chance
Market
Georgia -11.8
JT Projection
Georgia -11.8
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward Georgia
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Georgia

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
No meaningful change

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Arizona State logo
#63Arizona State
Big 12
OFF 44 · DEF 70
14%
JT win chance
BYU logo
#14BYU
Big 12
OFF 87 · DEF 80
86%
JT win chance
Market
BYU -16.3
JT Projection
BYU -16.6
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward BYU
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward BYU

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Arizona State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Kansas logo
#49Kansas
Big 12
OFF 64 · DEF 83
36%
JT win chance
TCU logo
#37TCU
Big 12
OFF 42 · DEF 96
64%
JT win chance
Market
TCU -5.8
JT Projection
TCU -5.5
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Kansas
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.7 pts toward TCU

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.8 pts toward Kansas

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Kansas

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Minnesota logo
#52Minnesota
Big Ten
OFF 20 · DEF 88
10%
JT win chance
Indiana logo
#8Indiana
Big Ten
OFF 76 · DEF 98
90%
JT win chance
Market
Indiana -20.5
JT Projection
Indiana -20.2
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Minnesota
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.6 pts toward Minnesota

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Indiana

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Minnesota

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Northwestern logo
#29Northwestern
Big Ten
OFF 82 · DEF 62
38%
JT win chance
Oregon logo
#13Oregon
Big Ten
OFF 37 · DEF 94
62%
JT win chance
Market
Oregon -3.5
JT Projection
Oregon -4.5
JT vs Market
1.0 pts toward Oregon
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.9 pts toward Oregon

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.3 pts toward Oregon

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Northwestern

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Colorado State logo
#112Colorado State
Pac-12
OFF 76 · DEF 0
33%
JT win chance
Utah State logo
#98Utah State
Pac-12
OFF 6 · DEF 80
67%
JT win chance
Market
Utah State -6.5
JT Projection
Utah State -6.7
JT vs Market
0.2 pts toward Utah State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.5 pts toward Utah State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Colorado State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Colorado State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
UTEP logo
#133UTEP
Mountain West
OFF 2 · DEF 22
8%
JT win chance
North Dakota State logo
#68North Dakota State
Mountain West
OFF 37 · DEF 87
92%
JT win chance
Market
North Dakota State -25.5
JT Projection
North Dakota State -22.4
JT vs Market
3.2 pts toward UTEP
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
2.8 pts toward UTEP

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward UTEP

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward UTEP

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Florida International logo
#111Florida International
Conference USA
OFF 36 · DEF 83
15%
JT win chance
Liberty logo
#73Liberty
Conference USA
OFF 74 · DEF 86
85%
JT win chance
Market
Liberty -14.0
JT Projection
Liberty -16.3
JT vs Market
2.3 pts toward Liberty
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.1 pts toward Liberty

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.3 pts toward Liberty

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Florida International

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:30 PM CDT
Southern Miss logo
#131Southern Miss
Sun Belt
OFF 37 · DEF 62
61%
JT win chance
UL Monroe logo
#137UL Monroe
Sun Belt
OFF 12 · DEF 40
39%
JT win chance
Market
Southern Miss -3.5
JT Projection
Southern Miss -4.1
JT vs Market
0.6 pts toward Southern Miss
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.8 pts toward Southern Miss

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward UL Monroe

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Southern Miss

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:45 PM CDT
Utah logo
#18Utah
Big 12
OFF 89 · DEF 85
67%
JT win chance
Cincinnati logo
#53Cincinnati
Big 12
OFF 71 · DEF 35
33%
JT win chance
Market
Utah -6.5
JT Projection
Utah -6.9
JT vs Market
0.4 pts toward Utah
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.3 pts toward Utah

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Utah

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 2:45 PM CDT
Virginia logo
#57Virginia
ACC
OFF 22 · DEF 79
23%
JT win chance
Wake Forest logo
#26Wake Forest
ACC
OFF 76 · DEF 81
77%
JT win chance
Market
Wake Forest -12.8
JT Projection
Wake Forest -11.5
JT vs Market
1.2 pts toward Virginia
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward Wake Forest

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.3 pts toward Virginia

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Virginia

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 3:00 PM CDT
New Mexico logo
#60New Mexico
Mountain West
OFF 27 · DEF 91
85%
JT win chance
San José State logo
#115San José State
Mountain West
OFF 14 · DEF 72
15%
JT win chance
Market
New Mexico -14.8
JT Projection
New Mexico -15.9
JT vs Market
1.1 pts toward New Mexico
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward San José State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.2 pts toward New Mexico

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward New Mexico

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 3:15 PM CDT
South Carolina logo
#23South Carolina
SEC
OFF 64 · DEF 74
40%
JT win chance
Oklahoma logo
#16Oklahoma
SEC
OFF 15 · DEF 97
60%
JT win chance
Market
Oklahoma -5.0
JT Projection
Oklahoma -4.0
JT vs Market
1.0 pts toward South Carolina
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward South Carolina

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward South Carolina

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward South Carolina

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 3:15 PM CDT
Purdue logo
#51Purdue
Big Ten
OFF 44 · DEF 12
31%
JT win chance
Penn State logo
#33Penn State
Big Ten
OFF 25 · DEF 75
69%
JT win chance
Market
Penn State -7.8
JT Projection
Penn State -7.5
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Purdue
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.8 pts toward Penn State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.9 pts toward Purdue

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Purdue

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 3:15 PM CDT
Nevada logo
#101Nevada
Mountain West
OFF 37 · DEF 93
8%
JT win chance
UCLA logo
#34UCLA
Big Ten
OFF 77 · DEF 95
92%
JT win chance
Market
UCLA -22.5
JT Projection
UCLA -22.3
JT vs Market
0.2 pts toward Nevada
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Nevada

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Nevada

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 5:30 PM CDT
App State logo
#108App State
Sun Belt
OFF 46 · DEF 69
29%
JT win chance
Georgia Southern logo
#89Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
OFF 47 · DEF 79
71%
JT win chance
Market
Georgia Southern -5.5
JT Projection
Georgia Southern -8.5
JT vs Market
3.0 pts toward Georgia Southern
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
2.7 pts toward Georgia Southern

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Georgia Southern

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward App State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:00 PM CDT
Oklahoma State logo
#25Oklahoma State
Big 12
OFF 93 · DEF 62
73%
JT win chance
Iowa State logo
#64Iowa State
Big 12
OFF 25 · DEF 62
27%
JT win chance
Market
Oklahoma State -8.8
JT Projection
Oklahoma State -9.5
JT vs Market
0.8 pts toward Oklahoma State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.5 pts toward Oklahoma State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Oklahoma State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Oklahoma State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:00 PM CDT
Clemson logo
#42Clemson
ACC
OFF 8 · DEF 89
37%
JT win chance
Florida State logo
#40Florida State
ACC
OFF 59 · DEF 41
63%
JT win chance
Market
Florida State -5.8
JT Projection
Florida State -4.9
JT vs Market
0.8 pts toward Clemson
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.2 pts toward Clemson

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.6 pts toward Florida State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Clemson

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:00 PM CDT
Washington State logo
#99Washington State
Pac-12
OFF 3 · DEF 51
43%
JT win chance
San Diego State logo
#100San Diego State
Pac-12
OFF 18 · DEF 27
57%
JT win chance
Market
San Diego State -2.5
JT Projection
San Diego State -2.6
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward San Diego State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward San Diego State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Washington State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:30 PM CDT
Mississippi State logo
#36Mississippi State
SEC
OFF 60 · DEF 60
11%
JT win chance
Texas logo
#5Texas
SEC
OFF 25 · DEF 97
89%
JT win chance
Market
Texas -20.5
JT Projection
Texas -19.1
JT vs Market
1.4 pts toward Mississippi State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.2 pts toward Mississippi State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
No meaningful change

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Mississippi State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:30 PM CDT
Georgia Tech logo
#66Georgia Tech
ACC
OFF 60 · DEF 38
31%
JT win chance
Pittsburgh logo
#43Pittsburgh
ACC
OFF 60 · DEF 84
69%
JT win chance
Market
Pittsburgh -7.5
JT Projection
Pittsburgh -7.4
JT vs Market
0.1 pts toward Georgia Tech
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
No meaningful change

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
No meaningful change

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Georgia Tech

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:30 PM CDT
Miami logo
#6Miami
ACC
OFF 96 · DEF 93
81%
JT win chance
North Carolina logo
#48North Carolina
ACC
OFF 46 · DEF 68
19%
JT win chance
Market
Miami -14.5
JT Projection
Miami -13.8
JT vs Market
0.7 pts toward North Carolina
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.1 pts toward North Carolina

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.2 pts toward Miami

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Miami

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:30 PM CDT
Ohio State logo
#3Ohio State
Big Ten
OFF 77 · DEF 95
63%
JT win chance
USC logo
#10USC
Big Ten
OFF 82 · DEF 73
37%
JT win chance
Market
Ohio State -6.5
JT Projection
Ohio State -5.1
JT vs Market
1.4 pts toward USC
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.4 pts toward USC

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward USC

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Ohio State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 6:45 PM CDT
Missouri logo
#12Missouri
SEC
OFF 49 · DEF 82
73%
JT win chance
Arkansas logo
#61Arkansas
SEC
OFF 40 · DEF 35
27%
JT win chance
Market
Missouri -10.0
JT Projection
Missouri -9.3
JT vs Market
0.7 pts toward Arkansas
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward Arkansas

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.5 pts toward Arkansas

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Missouri

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 7:00 PM CDT
Washington logo
#39Washington
Big Ten
OFF 30 · DEF 68
36%
JT win chance
Nebraska logo
#35Nebraska
Big Ten
OFF 67 · DEF 95
64%
JT win chance
Market
Nebraska -7.5
JT Projection
Nebraska -5.4
JT vs Market
2.1 pts toward Washington
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
2.3 pts toward Washington

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward Nebraska

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Washington

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 7:00 PM CDT
Army logo
#78Army
American Athletic
OFF 82 · DEF 24
37%
JT win chance
Memphis logo
#62Memphis
American Athletic
OFF 88 · DEF 66
63%
JT win chance
Market
Memphis -6.0
JT Projection
Memphis -5.0
JT vs Market
1.0 pts toward Army
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward Memphis

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
1.1 pts toward Army

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Army

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 9:00 PM CDT
Texas State logo
#69Texas State
Pac-12
OFF 87 · DEF 50
24%
JT win chance
Boise State logo
#38Boise State
Pac-12
OFF 67 · DEF 69
76%
JT win chance
Market
Boise State -11.3
JT Projection
Boise State -10.9
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Texas State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.2 pts toward Texas State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.1 pts toward Boise State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Texas State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 9:30 PM CDT
Northern Illinois logo
#136Northern Illinois
Mountain West
OFF 16 · DEF 9
7%
JT win chance
UNLV logo
#75UNLV
Mountain West
OFF 23 · DEF 44
93%
JT win chance
Market
UNLV -23.8
JT Projection
UNLV -23.5
JT vs Market
0.3 pts toward Northern Illinois
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
0.3 pts toward UNLV

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.4 pts toward Northern Illinois

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Northern Illinois

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Week 9Sat, 10:00 PM CDT
Oregon State logo
#56Oregon State
Pac-12
OFF 86 · DEF 77
62%
JT win chance
Fresno State logo
#83Fresno State
Pac-12
OFF 25 · DEF 58
38%
JT win chance
Market
Oregon State -5.8
JT Projection
Oregon State -4.6
JT vs Market
1.2 pts toward Fresno State
Why JT Differs+
Team Profile
1.0 pts toward Fresno State

Season-to-date underlying performance favors this team relative to the market.

Matchup Fit
0.3 pts toward Fresno State

How the teams’ statistical strengths and weaknesses interact.

Baseline
0.2 pts toward Oregon State

Small model-wide calibration adjustment.

Methodology & run details+
Generated
Oct 27, 2026, 1:03 PM CDT
Published
Oct 27, 2026, 1:03 PM CDT
Model
JT_POLL_DEPLOYMENT_V1
Market / Unit
MODEL6B_CURRENT_MARKET_TOP25_V3 / MODEL6F_HISTORICAL_UNIT_RATINGS_V3

AP Poll rankings are display-only and never affect JT Rating.